Warrant exercise and bond conversion in competitive markets

We develop a theory of warrants held by competitive warrantholders not constrained to exercise their warrants as one block; the theory also applies to convertible bonds held by competitive bondholders not constrained to convert their bonds as one block. We prove that the warrant (bond) price in each of the competitive equilibria is less than or equal to the price in an economy with the block constraint; and for at least one competitive equilibrium the warrant (bond) price equals the warrant (bond) price in the block-constrained economy. We illustrate the paths of competitive warrant exercise and bond conversion and conclude that under realistic assumptions they can be long.     

Introduction and Overview

As one of globalisation's most visible dimensions, foreign direct investment (FDI) is central to the prospects for developing countries in the world economy. Key issues include the direction of causation between FDI and growth, the potential role of the new information and communication technologies in attracting FDI flows (as well as the role of FDI in building such infrastructure), the process of skill acquisition associated with FDI, and the specific problems that Africa faces in attracting more FDI. Achievement of the Millennium Development Goals requires very fast growth in output and employment if global poverty is to be halved, and FDI could play a very positive role if its development benefits are maximised.     

What's Special About Banks?

I delineate six aspects of how banks have been “special” (although not unique) and then consider whether and to what extent these attributes are still relevant. These include efficiently produced products, importance for the development and growth of economies, international scope, role in economic instability and the conduct of monetary policy, early regulation by governments, and source of data for academic researchers and institutions. Despite changes in the environment and in the ways in which financial services are provided, banks still are special. However, their specialness for public policy concerns is now limited to frauds and deposit insurance. I suggest ways in which these concerns can be dealt with efficiently.     

Managing customer relationships: Account manager turnover and effective account management

Managing relationships with customers and clients is a critical task for industrial sales organizations. This paper reports on research that focuses on improving client relationships through effective handling of account manager turnover and improved account management. Even in situations where account manager turnover is high, the relationship between the company and the SME client does not suffer if the account management turnover process is well managed. When account manager turnover is not well managed, customer satisfaction suffers. The research also identifies eleven specific management activities that are highly related to supplier satisfaction with both the account manager and the supplier financial institution.     

Repeated Games with Almost-Public Monitoring

In repeated games with imperfect public monitoring, players can use public signals to coordinate their behavior, and thus support cooperative outcomes, but with private monitoring, such coordination may no longer be possible. Even though grim trigger is a perfect public equilibrium (PPE) in games with public monitoring, it often fails to be an equilibrium in arbitrarily close games with private monitoring. If a PPE has players' behavior conditioned only on finite histories, then it induces an equilibrium in all close-by games with private monitoring. This implies a folk theorem for repeated games with almost-public almost-perfect monitoring. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73.     

Time-varying risk aversion and asset prices

This paper uses a variant of the consumption-based representative agent model in Campbell and Cochrane [Campbell, J.Y., Cochrane, J.H., 1999. By force of habit: Consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior. Journal of Political Economy 107, 205–251] to study how investors’ time-varying risk aversion affects asset prices. First, we show that a countercyclical variation of risk aversion drives a procyclical conditional risk premium. Second, we show that with a small value for the volatility of the log surplus consumption ratio, a large value of risk aversion may not determine whether the equity premium and the risk-free rate puzzles can be resolved or not. Third, we show that countercyclical risk aversion may not help explain the predictability of long-horizon stock returns, the univariate mean-reversion of stock prices and the “leverage effect” in return volatility.     

Exposure Triggers and Allocation Methods: Learning Lessons From Prior Court Rulings

This study provides a review of some of the major court rulings that have shaped and continue to shape the commercial general liability (CGL) market. The evolution of the concepts of "triggers" and allocations systems is examined to gain a perspective on the way in which courts reinterpret contract language to apply to new and emerging exposures. A review of the issues impacting the CGL provides valuable insights into the way court rulings can create a significant impact in the insurance market. A stream of court decisions provides the backdrop for today's challenges, including the reemergence of asbestos claims. The study also fills a gap in the literature related to the crisis in the CGL marketplace and changes in the pricing, regulation, and solvency of insurers operating in those lines. As old risks continue to evolve and new risks emerge, courts have begun to reinterpret liability contracts in much the same way as they reinterpreted contracts with regard to pollution and products in the 1970s and 1980s. Recent rulings related to asbestos and environmental liability underscore the importance of these issues in today's marketplace. By reviewing these events related to the CGL policy, insurers, insureds, and regulators may gain a new perspective on the importance of developing a clear standard wording that will be consistently interpreted in light of new exposures.     

Capital Structure and Financial Risk: Evidence from Foreign Debt Use in East Asia

Using a data set of East Asian nonfinancial companies, we examine a firm's choice between local, foreign, and synthetic local currency (hedged foreign currency) debt. We find evidence of unique as well as common factors that determine each debt type's use, indicating the importance of examining debt at a disaggregated level. We exploit the Asian financial crisis as a natural experiment to investigate the role of debt type in firm performance. Surprisingly, we find that the use of synthetic local currency debt is associated with the biggest drop in market value, possibly due to currency derivative market illiquidity during the crisis.     

The Split of the S&P 500 Futures Contract: Effects on Liquidity and Market Dynamics

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange reduced the size of its S&P 500 futures contract when it reduced the multiplier from 500 to 250 and increased the minimum tick from 0.05 to 0.10 on November 3, 1997. This is a rare major change in a very successful contract's specifications. We analyze effects of this change on liquidity and market dynamics in both a univariate and a multivariate context. The main contribution of this study is the use of multiple intervention analysis with various dynamic response functions to examine the effects of the split while taking into account several other major market events surrounding it. A multivariate analysis is also used to test the impact of the split using a structural model of liquidity and market dynamics. Empirical findings offer limited support for the hypotheses that smaller contract size resulted in smoother trading, and that more public customers trade the S&P 500 futures contract following its split. We observe a reduction in the average transaction size as well as a temporary narrowing of the bid-ask spreads, but no significant change in volatility that can be attributed to the split. We do not find any significant and lasting impact on other liquidity and market variables.